The population of Spain will drop from 40 to 31 million inhabitants in the next 50 years.

The number of inhabitants will be reduced to 31.2 million and the average age will rise to 55: the highest in the world.

ISABEL PIQUER – New York (El País, Sunday 4th March 2001)
In the year 2050 Spain will be the oldest country in the world and will have lost 21.8% of its current population. This is just one of the chilling conclusions regularly recorded by the Population Division of the United Nations whenever the update their demographic studies. However the organisation has reduced its pessimism compared to the previous year when it forecast a drop of 25% in the Spanish population in the next half-century. It was reckoned at that time that Spain would need to receive 15 million immigrants during this period if it were to retain its current labour force.

The latest predictions of the UN, which will be made known today in New York, present a revealing panorama in which the populations of the developed nations will be steadily reduced, in contrast to those of the third world, in spite of AIDS.

It is a question of balance. The economic powers afflicted with a low birth rate will loose weight in the global scale, while the less affluent counties will continue to grow. This will cause all kinds of problems, which the governments of Europe, Japan or North America are afraid to face. How can the population be kept active? How many immigrants will have to be taken in? Who will pay the pensions? What will life be like in an older society?

These questions will be raised again today when the UN presents its new report on predicted demographic changes over the next 50 years. “Our predictions are more accurate now because we have more data available to us. The trends will remain the same as in recent years, with a tendency to get worse.” Says Joseph Chamie, director of the Population Division of the United Nations, who will present the report today.

Despite the improvement on previous predictions, the figures for Spain are among the most pessimistic. Within half a century Spain, whose birth rate is lower than the rest of the European Union, will be the oldest nation in the world, with an average age of 55. Even if we include the current immigration figures, the populations will drop from its current level of 40 million to only 31.2 million, a drop of 21.8%. There are worse cases: Russia will lose 28% of its inhabitants (41 million people) and the Ukraine 40% (20 million people).

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The two oldest countries in the world right now are Japan, with an average of 41 years of age, and Italy, with 40. Spain will overtake them within 50 years. The youngest countries: Yemen, Nigeria and Uganda, whose populations have an average age of 16, will still be the youngest, but the average age will rise by 5 years, according to Chamie.

The risk to pensions. This promises to cause serious problems in maintaining the population active and in the current pensions system. Maintaining the current relationship between active and retired people will put pensions at risk. The richer countries are obliged to open their doors to a massive immigration, around 2 million people per year over the next 50 years, according to the estimates of the UN. Other possibilities that governments should be considering include unpopular measures such as raising the age of retirement and promoting private pension systems.

Europe needs to become a multicultural society, if it wants to survive. This was emphasised by the director of the ODCE, Jean Pierre Garzón: “To speak of the ‘European fortress’ as some are doing, is absurd. We only have to look at the figures. Politicians don’t like to face up to these kind of questions for fear of losing votes, but the facts are there: zero immigration is pure utopia.”

Whatever happens, by the year 2050, in general there will be many more older people. The total number of people over 60 will be multiplied by 3 in the next 50 years, from 606 million to 2000 million in the year 2050. “The effects of this ageing will be felt earlier than we think. Hypothetically, if the developed countries: Europe, North America and Japan, closed there doors to immigrants right now, their populations would begin to decrease as of 2003 and by the year 2050 there would be 126 million people less” affirms Chamie.

The growth of Africa. These changes will profoundly affect the regional population balance. “After the Second World War, Europe represented 22% of the world’s population and Africa only 8%. Today these zones share the same portion, 13%. However, by 2050 Africa will have three times the population of Europe,” says Chamie. In a more concrete example he states that: “50 years ago, Spain had three times the population of Morocco, but within half a century, Morocco will have 60% more inhabitants.”

All together, the new predictions estimate that the world’s population will be 9300 million, 413 more than the estimate of two years ago. Right now there are around 6000 million human beings. But the balance will change. The developed countries will only just maintain their 1200 million, while those which are still developing will almost double their numbers: from 4900 to 8200 million people.
* Information sources: Consultation of Latin Missionaries, Guadarrama, Madrid: January 2002, sponsored by AME and Comibam, Spain.
Extract from “El País” Sunday 4th March, 2001.

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